And so, the blame game begins. Predictably, it didn’t take long for the second guessers of the hindsight machine to lob grenades at Kamala Harris and the Democrats. The media is hyper-ventilating over what quickly has been dubbed another American seismic political...
The timestamp finally says November—a month that many of us thought would never arrive. The most consequential US presidential election in modern history is now at hand. The pollsters have all but surrendered with a nearly unanimous shrug of “too close to call.” It...
For old-time forecasters like me, there is nothing like the International Monetary Fund’s regular update of its World Economic Outlook (WEO)—it has all the detail, analytics, supporting data, and internal consistency that any of us could ask for. Back in my Wall...
My perspective on the US-China conflict has long been framed in the context of false narratives—stories that are based on a shred of fact that then gets distorted through the lens of political expedience. I have been critical of both the United States and China for...
While China is not Japan, by my reckoning the comparisons have now become too close for comfort. In the face of China’s deepening economic malaise, this is not the time for Beijing to split hairs over the distinctions—it should, instead, err on the side of acceptance...
I have been warning about this for far too long. Two books, Unbalanced and Accidental Conflict, and countless articles later, my fears are coming to pass: The American strain of Sinophobia has now taken on a life of its own. There would come a time, I wrote as...
China’s seemingly outsize policy stimulus took most of us by surprise this week. Just when we had gotten used to Beijing’s grudging reaction to increasingly serious economic problems, the financial authorities apparently came to the rescue with their own version of a...
The question mark at the end of this title underscores a Chinese economy that has entered what could well be the toughest phase of its extraordinary rise. By now, China’s cyclical and structural growth challenges are well known—the debt-intensive property crisis is at...
It has become conventional wisdom that China’s investment problem is in a league of its own. A recent article by Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal is the latest example of this groupthink. With the investment share of China’s GDP in uncharted territory, goes the...
Call me a cynic, but I have my doubts about the motives behind the recent flurry of US diplomatic initiatives directed at China. Jake Sullivan’s late August mission to Beijing, a first in his official capacity as US National Security Advisor, was the highlight. It was...