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Resignation Bordering on Despair

The spark is gone. After having spent the past week in Beijing and Hong Kong, there can be no mistaking a darkening mood in both cities. Their unbridled enthusiasm and can-do energy have given way to a relatively grim sense of resignation. For the younger generation,...

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Hong Kong is Over: An Audacious Wake-Up Call

Stephen Roach speech before The Foreign Correspondents Club of Hong Kong June 5, 2024 It is a distinct honor to stand before the Foreign Correspondents Club, with your rich history of defending press freedom in Hong Kong. I can think of no better platform than the FCC...

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The Power of Debate

I have relished the debate for as long as I can remember. As I head back to Asia yet again, there will be no lack of opportunity to engage in intellectual sparring. I return with some trepidation. First stop, Beijing, where I was silenced at the China Development...

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Trade Diversion Fixes Nothing

US trade policy is now creating more problems than it is solving. I continue to pound the table on the self-inflicted aspects of the US trade deficit and stress the unintended consequences of wrong-footed US trade policies. This runs against the grain of the...

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New Engines of Global Growth

While China remains the major growth engine in a $105 trillion (USD) world economy, I argued last week that this engine is now operating at a slower speed than we have been accustomed to. China’s peak impetus to the world economy was concentrated in 2010 to 2019 when...

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China as a Global Growth Engine?

A proud Chinese leadership has long boasted of the important role that China has played as the major engine of global growth. The numbers certainly bear that out.  Over the ten-year period, from 2010 to 2019, China accounted for fully 32% of the cumulative increase in...

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The Excess Capacity Debate

Chinese leaders are stressing two major themes driving their current growth strategy—an industrial upgrading that draws on “new productive forces” and a long overdue  boost to household demand. Of these two areas of focus, the emphasis on production is getting the...

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The Voodoo of China Hawks

There is a growing and increasingly vocal constituency in the United States that favors a kinetic war with China. Look no further than hallowed pages of Foreign Affairs, America’s preeminent platform of intellectual engagement on international policy. In the upcoming...

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China’s Growth Shock

Whether it is a race car or an economy, deceleration is all relative. If a sleek, high-performance race car slows abruptly from a speed of 200 miles an hour to 50 miles per hour, a passenger without a seatbelt might be thrown through the windshield, Similarly, for an...

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What’s the Point?

That is the tough question that I am now asking myself after my recent trip to Beijing to attend the 25th annual China Development Forum (CDF). Having been to all but the first CDF in 2000, my participation over each of the ensuing 24 years makes me the...

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