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China’s AI Problem

Chinese censorship inserts a big “if” into its AI-enabled future. Its aggressive editing of information is a major pitfall for a ChatGPT with Chinese characteristics. By wiping the historical slate clean of important events and the human experiences associated with...

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Two Summits

All eyes are on the G-7 summit this weekend (May 19-21) in Hiroshima, Japan—a painfully historic setting for a world in turmoil. The issues are many but three seem likely to get the greatest attention—the war in Ukraine, climate change, and China. While there is some...

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Conflict Fatigue

After a while, it starts to seem like “same old, same old.” Week after week, I detail on these pages yet another twist in the seemingly never-ending US-China conflict—from tariffs and sanctions to 5G telecommunications equipment and advanced semiconductors, from...

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Coping with a Tech War

The United States has dispelled any doubts about its intentions to squeeze China’s rise as a technology superpower. Starting with a mid-September 2022 speech by National Security Director Jake Sullivan that laid out the broad parameters of the case against China, the...

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Pondering Interest Rates

As a recovering Wall Street economist, the scars of my interest rate prognostications have taken the longest to heal. So, take what you are about to read with more than the usual grain of salt. First, the easy part: It seems reasonably sate to conclude that the...

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No Off Ramp

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is my favorite living policy economist. It’s not just her rich experience in academia and government. It is the creative and tenacious application of that experience to tackling a wide range of formidable challenges in economics,...

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Back on the Road

It is starting to feel like I am back on Wall Street! This dispatch comes from London, my second offshore trek in 3½ weeks. This time, it is an international investor conference, providing me with the opportunity to push the debate on China, decoupling, and interest...

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Beijing’s Grim Sense of Resignation

As the jet lag fades (mostly) from my first trip back to China in nearly three and a half years, a few fuzzy impressions are now coming into sharper focus. Resignation is at the top of my list. For the broad consensus of Chinese I met with during my March 23 to 28...

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Back in China

Finally.  After nearly 3½ years I returned to China for my first post-Covid visit.  The 24th annual China Development Forum was the focus of the trip.  I have attended every CDF since 2001, missing only the first one in 2000.  I have long found the CDF to be the most...

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China’s Take on the SVB Crisis

Last week I hinted that the rapidly spreading SVB crisis — from Silicon Valley Bank to Signature and First Republic Banks, to Credit Suisse — could have important implications for the US China conflict. I am now back in Beijing for the first time in over three years,...

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