In my countless travels to China over the years, last week was the first time I have ever had a frank and honest discussion about the Cultural Revolution. When I would raise the topic in the past, there was usually an awkward silence followed by a quick desire to change the subject. That was not the case this time.
The subject came up repeatedly in meetings, panel sessions, and presentations that I was a part of during a nine-day trip that centered on the China Development Forum (Beijing) and the Boao Forum for Asia (Hainan). For reasons noted below, I raised the issue of the Cultural Revolution on several occasions. What surprised me was how eager Chinese audiences were to jump in and engage me on this topic. I will get to my suspicions as to why this occurred, but first, a synopsis of my message.
In thinking and writing about the Trump shock of early 2025, I have stressed three key developments that are antithetical to the American value proposition:
- Free trade: By shifting to the “liberation” of protectionism, the United States, as the architect of the post-World War II global trading system, is raising tariffs on America’s multilateral partners to levels not seen since the early 1930s.
- Rule of law: A MAGA-based assault on the constitutional separation of powers has not only been enabled by the political emasculation of the US Congres, but, among other things, Trump is now hinting of running for a third presidential term.
- America’s global role: An anti-globalist Trump Administration is driving a stake in the hearts of the NATO alliance and the USMCA integrated trade arrangement, while embracing an adversarial Russian Federation and pondering territorial expansion into Greenland, Panama, Gaza, and most shockingly, Canada.
These seismic developments, I argued, have undermined the moral authority of the United States as the leader of the Free World—in effect, breaking the trust embodied in what has been dubbed “American exceptionalism.” Once that trust is broken, I cautioned, it will be almost impossible to repair the damage for the foreseeable future.
That‘s quite a mouthful, to say the least. But it provides an easy segue to the American strain of a cultural revolution. In this case, I am not defining a revolution in absolute terms—checking the boxes of characteristics associated with, say, the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, or even the Chinese Revolution. Instead, I am stressing the concept of a revolution in in relative terms—basically, an overturning of pre-existing national norms. Inasmuch as those pre-revolutionary norms differ for every nation, the same can be expected of absolute comparisons.
That was most assuredly in looking at The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, launched by Mao and his followers in 1966, with a series of actions aimed at overthrowing the foundational pillars of Chinese bureaucracy and society. China’s wrenching upheaval lasted for about a decade, followed by a chaotic leadership struggle after Mao’s death in 1976 that ultimately transitioned into a new reform-based leadership under Deng Xiaoping in 1978.
As of this writing (April 2) Donald Trump has been at it for only 73 days. But suffice it to say his vision of America is radically different from what we came to know in the pre-Trump past. His aim is to Make America Great Again. But, in relative terms, his misdirected efforts to resurrect the again part of his mantra are, in many respects, just as revolutionary as what Mao was trying to accomplish during China’s upheaval.
Take a deep breath before you vehemently disagree. But having taught a class on Modern China for over a dozen years, I am acutely aware of the violence of China’s Cultural Revolution—the unleashing of the Red Guards, the shuttering of universities, the breakdown of family structurers and social norms, the sent-down youth forced into the “re-education” of manual labor in the countryside, and death rates estimated between 500,000 and two million people. No, that is not America.
The more relevant comparison with China’s upheaval during the Cultural Revolution is America’s fundamental break from historic norms, as underscored above, with respect to trade, the rule of law, and the world order. But there is an equally important cultural piece to Trump 2.0 that is strikingly reminiscent of Mao’s assault on so-called bourgeois Chinese culture. Institutions that embody the soul of America’s national culture are under attack in the early days of Trump 2.0—universities, scientific research, a free media, even the arts (i.e., the installation of Donald Trump as Kennedy Center Chairman). The same is true of leading law firms, the Federal bureaucracy, and the safety net support of Medicaid and Social Security.
Finally, while I admit it’s a huge stretch to compare the unelected Elon Musk’s DOGE brigade with China’s destructive marauders of fanatical Red Guards, just the existence of a band of faceless, young MAGA loyalists now hard at work in dismantling America’s Federal government is a worrisome parallel with paramilitary groups of earlier authoritarian regimes—be they disorganized (China’s Red Guards) or more organized in “competitive authoritarian” regimes such as Hungary, Turkey, and Venezuela. As illustrated below, the MAGA fanatics of January 6, 2021, only reinforce that worrisome comparison.
I stress again that the United States is not China—before, during, and hopefully after its own unique strain of the Cultural Revolution. My point in all this is to argue that the break from America’s historical norms has the potential to be just as significant as the break which occurred in China from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s. That fits my definition of a revolution in relative terms—a true Cultural Revolution, albeit one with American characteristics.
If you accept that premise, there is an important distinction to make between the two Cultural Revolutions. China’s CR was solely an internal upheaval, with virtually no global impacts; the Chinese economy accounted for well below 5% of world GDP (PPP and US dollar basis) during the Cultural Revolution. By contrast, America’s CR is both an internal and an external upheaval, with profound global impacts; the US currently accounts for 15% of world GDP on a PPP basis and around 25% of global output on a US dollar basis. In that important respect, America’s Cultural Revolution could well end up being far more disruptive to the world at large than was the case with the Chinese strain more than a half century ago. Moreover, the output effects on world GDP are likely to be amplified by the mounting possibilities of a global trade war and the splintering of the post-World War II alliance between the US and Europe—underscoring the potentially seismic ramifications of the American CR on the world at large.
Which takes me to my theory of why the Chinese audiences I encountered in late March were so open to discussing their Cultural Revolution for the first time in my experience. I confess that what I am about to argue is pure conjecture, a hunch based on over 25 years of experience inside of China. But bear with me as I explain.
I have always had the sense that the Chinese have been embarrassed about this painful episode in their history. In his famous address at the Party’s Third Plenum in late 1978, Deng Xiaoping tried to absolve the Chinese people of any blame for this upheaval, famously arguing that, “The Cultural Revolution has become a stage in the course of China’s socialist development.” For those who lived through that stage, however, it wasn’t quite as easy to sweep the experience under the rug as Deng’s allusion to a mere phase implied. The Chinese have always viewed the Cultural Revolution as a deep stain on their modern history.
Here’s where the conjecture comes in: Thanks to America’s MAGA-inspired Cultural Revolution, the Chinese may now feel they are no longer alone in experiencing such a painful break from their past. The American CR informs a proud Chinese people that they are not unique in their suffering through a revolutionary stage. That realization effectively permissions them to relax and speak far more openly about this incredibly painful period in their own past. I confess that I am not a mind reader. But during last week’s trip, I did detect a far more relaxed attitude in addressing what has long been an awkward, if not taboo, topic. The corollary of that conclusion suggests that Chinese may no longer feel that the United States deserves its place on the pedestal of truly great nations, that it is not as great as the MAGA credo insists.
All in all, I found this shared perception of two cultural revolutions a fascinating topic for discussion last week in China. I may be guilty of stretching this comparison. But I don’t feel that I am under-estimating the potential for upheaval that Trump 2.0 has sparked within the United States and the rest of the world. I would go even further and point out that, unlike the China of the late 1970s, there is no savior like a Deng Xiaoping currently waiting in America’s political wings.
Finally, I am reminded of what Jonathan Spence, Yale’s great Sinologist, had to say in his ultimate assessment of the Cultural Revolution: “The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution showed that neither Mao nor the CCP seemed to know how or where the nation should be heading.” I fear that history will end up rendering a similar verdict on Donald Trump and America’s Cultural Revolution.