The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. Risks have tipped decidedly to the downside in the US and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative growth in world GDP since 2010. With no new engines to fill the...

As always, March is the best time of the year for a deep think on China. Coinciding with the annual “Two Sessions” meetings of national legislators and political representatives, the government releases a series of detailed “work reports” that offer considerable...

[NOTE: Last week I argued that the die is cast for US-China conflict escalation over the foreseeable future — or at least for the four-year duration of Trump 2.0. That poses a major set of challenges to the economic outlook. This week, I will address the implications...