Sometimes the pundits have it right.  The chorus of commentary is overflowing with criticism of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff proposal. With good reason.  It is a terrible idea from virtually every perspective — economics, global stability, history, and politics....

As something of a congenital contrarian, I have always been suspicious of one-way trades in financial markets. Last week, I took a stab at the AI bet.  In what follows, I turn my focus to the US dollar, currently at an all-time high.  The consensus mindset is that...

As an economist, I have long been mindful of my limits in making market calls. I have had my share of hits and misses — correctly warning of equity bubbles in 1987 and 1999 while mistakenly sounding the alarm on a crash in the US dollar in 2021. Barton Biggs, my...